What to expect from China’s potential Belt and Road Initiative 2.0

China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), also known as the New Silk Road, has been a cornerstone of its foreign policy over the past decade.

Spanning across Southeast Asia and Africa, the BRI aimed to connect continents through extensive infrastructure projects.

However, the initiative faced scrutiny and criticism, with some viewing it as a means for China to expand its geopolitical influence.

Now, as China pivots towards a new phase, often referred to as BRI 2.0, it raises questions about its strategy and implications for its partnerships, particularly in Africa.

Is Africa in China’s debt trap?

China has long hosted the China-Africa Cooperation event every three years, a platform to bolster diplomatic and economic ties with African nations.

Historically, China’s investment in Africa focused on grand infrastructure projects intended to stimulate development.

By 2019, however, these projects began to strain China’s resources, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

As China grappled with domestic challenges, its investments in developing countries slowed significantly.

African countries, many of which had accrued significant debt from Chinese loans, began facing financial pressures.

Discussions about debt sustainability emerged as a direct consequence of these earlier investments.

Yunnan Chen, a researcher, notes that while political relations between China and Africa remain robust, the financing landscape has shifted.

The enthusiasm for large-scale Chinese investments has waned, as African nations are now cautious about taking on more debt.

Smaller projects and confidential deals

For BRI 2.0 to succeed, China must adapt its approach significantly.

Unlike the previous decade’s large-scale projects, the new strategy emphasizes smaller, more manageable investments.

An example is China’s recent deal with South Africa, where financial details were kept confidential—a departure from previous practices where China publicly pledged billions in funding.

This shift towards funding smaller projects, typically valued at around $50 million each, reflects China’s attempt to alleviate the financial burden and manage debt more effectively.

These smaller projects, which cost less and yield quicker results, are designed to enhance China’s image positively among the African public while avoiding the pitfalls of massive debt.

In the past year alone, China has allocated $4.6 billion for such mini-projects, marking the highest level of investment in the past five years.

This gradual increase in smaller investments suggests a strategic pivot towards a more sustainable and less controversial approach.

Future of China’s engagement with Africa

As China moves forward with its BRI 2.0, the focus on smaller-scale projects could help mitigate some of the financial strains experienced under the original BRI framework.

Africa remains cautious but open to collaboration, provided that it aligns with its economic needs and debt management strategies.

While BRI 2.0 aims to foster development without the extensive debt associated with earlier projects, the long-term impact of this new strategy remains to be seen.

China’s evolving approach could reshape its relationship with African nations, potentially offering a more balanced and sustainable model of investment.

The future of China’s Belt and Road Initiative will depend on how effectively it can address past criticisms and adapt to the changing economic landscape.

As both China and Africa navigate this new phase, the outcomes of these investments will be closely watched for their broader implications on global trade and geopolitical dynamics.

The post What to expect from China’s potential Belt and Road Initiative 2.0 appeared first on Invezz